So everyone's papers are now in and its less than four weeks to go to Election Day so we thought it made sense to now do a write-up making our predictions for 23rd September. We aren't going to do the whole TwentyFourKeys style of technical prediction - so there's no pseudo science been used to arrive at any of the below. Neither do we care about any candidates social media following or attempt to factor in any of the tripe that they might post about themselves online. We are just going to call it as we see it on the basis that most members of the great Manx voting public aren't completely insane and so common sense is likely to prevail in most cases - which we think is likely to drive the following outcomes.
Included under our prediction is also a nominated wildcard candidate to attempt to cater for things that might disrupt our predicted outcomes.
And so without further ado our 2021 predictions are as follows:
Arbory, Castletown & Malew
With HM Sole having now withdrawn his candidacy there's a whole seven extra votes to go round in Arbory, Castletown and Malew and so our predictions are:
Jason Moorhouse
Tim Glover
Much as we think Tim Glover is a genuinely terrible establishment candidate who will likely add little real value for the people of Arbory, Castletown & Malew in the next five years he does benefit from a lot of past personal exposure from his many years of asking irrelevant questions to politicians on Manx Radio. His wife is also a commissioner in the main Parish let's not forget.
Wildcard: Our wild card here is Rob Callister doppelganger Steve Crowther who has nearly pulled it off before in the same constituency.
Ayre & Michael
Alf Cannan
Paul Weatherall
This is probably how it should fall as a fairly benign mix of a right leaning free market Tory and a progressive left leaning Liberal Vannin candidate. This sort of outcome should it happen would likely create a good political balance for the people of Ayre & MIchael moving forward.
Wildcard: Our wildcard is Tim Baker (yes, really). There's still enough evangelical nuts out in the sticks of Bride and Andreas who would vote for Baker even if he was found to be Beelzebub's official envoy for the northern plains.
Douglas Central
Chris Thomas
Damian Ciappelli
Most Douglas Central voters seem to think that Ann Corlett has been missing in action for most of the last five years and Ciappelli seems to talk a good story and appears knowledgeable on both local politics and international issues. Our prediction is that Thomas is likely to top the poll with new challenger Ciappelli coming in a good second.
Wildcard: Naturally Ann Corlett has to be our only wildcard selection being the only other candidate standing in Douglas Central. Post publication edit: We forgot that Sara Hackman announced in Douglas Central on the very last day possible but her candidacy won't make any difference to any of the above predictions.
Douglas East
Joney Faragher
Claire Barber
For the exact same reasons already noted in relation to Ayre & MIchael this sort of predicted outcome would create a nice mix of blue and red for the voters of Douglas East with the end result being two very competent candidates who hold what seem to be different political perspectives but who will likely work well together for the general good of the area.
Wildcard: Despite Peter Gilmour getting better and better as things progressed its likely Jonny Joughin as some in Douglas East will certainly be mad enough to vote for him what with him recently being mayor and all that.
Douglas North
David Ashford
Ralph Peake
The only opposition to these two candidates is a genuinely crazy person or someone who seems to think that everything can be solved in forty-five seconds flat (presumably then leaving him with the best part of five years off) so Ashford and Peake are our predicted winners. The local Lodge will certainly be pleased if both our predicted candidates successfully get back in.
Wildcard: John Wannenburgh who has also fought a good campaign and who may prove to be a popular alternative to Peake for many. The swooning Douglas North old ladies will likely have Ashford back in record time though.
Douglas South
Claire Christian
Sarah Maltby
We keep coming back to a predicted mix of blue (ish) and red as our most likely outcome in a few constituencies. Both these ladies are very good candidates who we think voters will see will likely work equally hard for the people of Douglas South.
Wildcard: Gerard Higgins. We're not sure why anybody would vote for a candidate who is having a clear double-dip on the taxpayer gravy boat. But there's a lot of civil servants living in Douglas South who probably aspire to do exactly the same at some stage when they too decide to cash out - likely making Higgins some sort of strange public sector folk hero.
Garff
Daphne Caine
Martyn Perkins
Lets face it absolutely nothing of any note goes on in Garff and while lots of Garff folk think Perkins is completely useless they've sort of got used to it and at face value accepted it as it doesn't really impact on their daily lives too much.
Wildcard: Gareth Young who can come across bit of a one-trick pony from his interviews but who got much better as time unravelled - and regardless he certainly appears to have the potential to be marginally less useless than Martyn Perkins to many.
Glenfaba & Peel
Kate Lord-Brennan
Trevor Cowin
Again we're predicting a mix of very different personalities and perspectives that would probably do the people of the Western Badlands well longer term. Trevor is a bit of a punt for us compared to a better known candidate like Crookall or Harmer - but nobody can say that he is a yes man and that's probably what the voting public in Peel especially wants after five years of putting up with two yes men neither of whom seem to have the best interests of anyone but themselves at heart.
Wildcard: Geoffrey Boot (yes, really). There's enough wealthy establishment idiots hanging round the outer edges of Peel & St Johns who might vote in sufficient numbers for a man who has latterly modelled his image on one of the Chimney Sweeps from Mary Poppins in order to try to appeal to the common man.
Middle
Jane Poole-Wilson
Stu Peters
Jane Poole-Wilson will certainly get in so in relation to who gets second place this is rather like reviewing your least favourite football match between your two least favourite football teams and rooting for your absolutely least favourite team to lose on penalties. Or maybe hoping that your least favourite friend doesn't win Euromillions next Friday. The options in Middle are genuinely woeful but there's enough right-leaning self made wannabees and self important finance sector workers living in big bungalows and new builds around the Glenvine area who might see the noisy Peters as a protest vote against the establishment figures they've had for the last five years.
Wildcard: Keiran Hannifin who should have run a better campaign than he has but he recovered his ground incredibly well towards the end and there's a younger vote in Middle that nobody else is tapping into that he just might get.
Onchan
Rob Callister
Julie Edge
We're not seeing anything to really rock the current status quo in Onchan regardless of how happy / unhappy voters might be with either of the current incumbents.
Wildcard: Lucifer's former right hand man Peter Willers may well surprise if Onchan folk don't have very long memories (and lets face it nobody in Onchan has, as they keep voting Quirky back in on the Commissioners) so Willers could well be the Onchan wildcard. That certainly seems to be what Liberal Vannin are planning anyway.
Ramsey
Alex Allinson
Lawrie Hooper
The Ramsey field is now a complete mess with eight candidates running in total which will slice and dice every candidates vote down substantially. As such we predict a much smaller winning margin for both Dr Allinson and Lawrie Hooper.
Wildcard: We'd like to mention some real wildcards like Luke Parker or Jonathan Kinrade but realistically its Leonard Singer who will inevitably be the Pied Piper of South Ramsey by promising to stop a development which realistically is extremely unlikely to happen anyway. But the proposed Marina development has been made the big Ramsey election issue like it or not - and any even vague support for it will most certainly take votes from both Allinson and Hooper. Post publication edit: Simon Mann declared on the last day to do so and he would be our alternative wildcard if it isn't Singer - again based on his vehement opposition to the Marina (and despite some of his literally bonkers ideas on law and order).
Rushen
Juan Watterson
Andrew Langan-Newton
We'd be surprised if Langan-Newton didn't get in as he's sort of the thinking man's Mark Kemp - someone who will rock the boat but who is likely to do it in a largely intelligent and progressive way without resorting to the use of Kemp's Thor-like hammer. Sadly while he doesn't seem to be the preferred choice of many Watterson will probably get back in as there's still likely enough Rotary Club types in Rushen to see that this will happen.
Wildcard: 100% Mark Kemp as he's been very close before and seems to be well liked and as we see it Dr Hayward only really seems to appeal to herself. We're not actually convinced that any apparent or alleged public support for her candidacy is genuine.
So there you go. Those are our predictions for 2021 - good luck to all candidates.
Pictured: Tanya August-Hanson MLC.
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